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Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Tue 27 Mar - 10:58
Groveland woman charged with incest after giving birth to baby with ‘severe medical problems’, cops say (link)

I’ll report the bad with the good, because the issues around consangs having children are too important to fantasize that it’s all good. The woman, Pauline Elizabeth Martin, was the sister in a consensual adult brother-sister couple. The relationship was discovered when the child’s DNA was tested. No word on whether the baby’s ailments were caused by consanguinity.

I can only imagine how horrible Pauline must feel about all of this. Read the article and you'll see what I mean.

The best information I have indicate that there is about a one in three chance of the child of close relatives having at least one birth defect.

Thanks to Consanguinamory for spotting this.

UN

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Tue 27 Mar - 12:47
As you noted, the article doesn't bother to say (because the authorities likely didn't bother to say) if the medical problems were caused by shared genetics. It's intended for the reader to just assume it was, even though children with severe medical problems are born to unrelated parents ever day.

While it might not ultimately matter, the official situation in the US is that we have the right to remain silent and she should have used her right and not admitted to "incest." Also, we're supposedly "innocent until proven guilty." The fact is, women can get pregnant through rape or artificial insemination (which itself might be illegal depending on the state, at least between close relatives), or by unintentionally touching semen and and then touching herself.

It's supposed to be up to prosecutors to prove she had intercourse with her brother. The mere existence of a child may be enough to convince a jury, but it shouldn't be.

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Tue 27 Mar - 18:19
FullMarriageEquality wrote:As you noted, the article doesn't bother to say (because the authorities likely didn't bother to say) if the medical problems were caused by shared genetics. It's intended for the reader to just assume it was, even though children with severe medical problems are born to unrelated parents ever day.

The article didn't say that the baby's medical problems weren't caused by shared recessives, either.

Trigger Warning: Potentially Upsetting Metaphor

If close relatives have a child, the child will have a one in three chance of having a serious birth defect. Mathematically, this is like Russian roulette. Except that they have two bullets in the gun, and they are pointing it at their baby.

UN

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Wed 28 Mar - 2:49
Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)
Inbreeding is like playing Russian roulette with the gun pointed at your child.

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Wed 28 Mar - 2:51
OtherHans wrote:Inbreeding is like playing Russian roulette with the gun pointed at your child.

And, as I said, two bullets in the gun, for sibling or parent-offspring couples. About the same odds.

I wish I could say it's different and the risk is minimal. It's not.

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Wed 28 Mar - 4:19
1/3rd has to be the highest estimate I've ever seen. I think it's entirely theoretical and doesn't hold up in reality unless you're counting something like a webbed toe as a birth defect. Out of all of the actual births I know about personally now, I know of nothing serious other than a small minority of them having the kinds of learning disabilities a good chunk of kids are diagnosed with these days. I suppose it's possible many of that 1/3rd don't get far past conception. It's very common for a conception not to take and for someone not to even be aware they had conceived.

Mind you I agree there's an increased risk. I'm just thinking based on everything I've seen, 1/3rd is talking genetic theory and part of the whole process ends up doing some natural screening so that some of that third never makes it to the "I'm pregnant" stage.

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Wed 28 Mar - 4:22
I meant to add it's possible people who have the serious birth defect situations don't bother contacting me.

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Wed 28 Mar - 10:46
Keith, it may be the highest estimate you’ve seen, but it’s also the most reliable estimate in the current medical literature. Here’s my source:

"Genetic Counseling and Screening of Consanguineous Couples and Their Offspring: Recommendations of the National Society of Genetic Counselors" (link) I can’t post the paper because it’s copyrighted, but you can get your own copy from Springer for $40 at: Springer link. It’s dense and not easy to read, but the one-in-three number is in there, two ways.

When I went digging through the research, I’d wanted to find the happy story, too. The results that made everything all right and showed minimal risk. I found something quite different.

I don’t want to be an alarmist, but I also don't want to sugarcoat this. The stakes are too high -- the lives and health of a lot of children.

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Wed 28 Mar - 16:49
Regarding cousins and inbreeding I found this.

https://www.popsci.com/marrying-cousins-genetics

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Wed 28 Mar - 17:46
Consanguinamory wrote:Regarding cousins and inbreeding I found this.

https://www.popsci.com/marrying-cousins-genetics

First cousins are a different matter than brothers, sisters, etc. I think the NSGC guideline puts the risk factor at 4%, but I haven't checked it.

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Wed 28 Mar - 23:29
All of this is all the more reason for consanuinamory to be legalized and understood. Cosnang couples should at the very least get genetic counselling before having a child, and seriously consider other options for reporoduction to reduce the risk. There is always sperm banks and adoption to consider, both of which bypass inbreeding. I'm not saying absolutely don't, just that you need to be aware of potential genetic nasties that you probably aren't aware of. I'm for people making fully informed choices about their reproducton. Just, be aware before you discard your condoms.
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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Thu 29 Mar - 3:30
Unowen17 wrote:
FullMarriageEquality wrote:As you noted, the article doesn't bother to say (because the authorities likely didn't bother to say) if the medical problems were caused by shared genetics. It's intended for the reader to just assume it was, even though children with severe medical problems are born to unrelated parents ever day.

The article didn't say that the baby's medical problems weren't caused by shared recessives, either.

Trigger Warning: Potentially Upsetting Metaphor

If close relatives have a child, the child will have a one in three chance of having a serious birth defect. Mathematically, this is like Russian roulette. Except that they have two bullets in the gun, and they are pointing it at their baby.

UN

i dont put too much stock in that 31.4% figure they came up with.  that was based on data that is tenuous at best.  the control groups were highly variable, three of the studies were retrospective, and none of them accounted for non-genetic related issues.  

there are ALL kinds of issues with trying to use that study to predict the actual risks involved.  for instance, the 4.4% risk of cousin marriages is an average from 38 different studies all over the world.  that says very little about what an individual couples risk level would be, considering that the number includes some of the areas where first cousin marriages have been practiced for hundreds of years.  in their summary, they even state this ambiguity when they mention the ascertainment bias in the data and the increased risk as probably being between 7 and 31%.  though, to be honest, i have a hard time seeing that number as having any real meaning.  that number was based on just 213 individuals from studies replete with ascertainment bias.

the papers purpose was to suggest sound guidelines for the medical community to use for advising couples of their genetic risk factors.  it seemed to focus more on getting a history of family illnesses and listing a complete pedigree rather than blindly focusing on genetics alone.  which is basically to say, treat them exactly like every other couple on the planet.  with its stated purpose, there was no need for them to ensure the accuracy of the data they cited, and they all but stated as much.  the goal was not to definitively ascertain risk, but rather to suggest a best practice for genetic counseling, which i think they did quite well.
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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Fri 30 Mar - 10:04
Oh, good, someone else actually read the thing!

The authors admit that their data is not very reliable. So there’s no real need to argue that it’s unreliable.

It was, however, the best they could get at the time, and no one has since gotten any better data. So, until someone does, the article has to stand as the most reliable medical advice on the risks of consanguinity.

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UN

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Fri 30 Mar - 14:47
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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Fri 30 Mar - 16:39
there are hundreds and hundreds of studies that quantify the effects of inbreeding, just not in humans. one of the most popular species is the simple guppy. i have run numerous studies of my own using poecilids.

i will say this though... it seems that humanity overall is already incredibly heavily inbred. there is more genetic variation in a single family group of chimpanzees than we have in our entire species. that means that ALL of us came from a small group of individuals many eons ago. its possible we are nearing the point where we are all too inbred to sustain inbreeding, but i think its more likely that we are kinda like the different strains of guppies. there are many different strains that will breed true for their traits, but also have a high rate of deleterious mutations. but, if you breed any two strains together, it takes several generations for those same deleterious mutations to show back up. there are also several strains that can be line bred for many generations before anything sinister will present.

we are kinda like that. some populations will suffer greater negative impacts of inbreeding than others. some populations wont seem to show any negative effects from it any time soon. and all populations generally strengthen their genetic lines against deleterious mutations via outbreeding.

that said though, the only way for a fish breeder to know what is likely to happen is to have a good understanding of each fishes pedigree. kinda like what the genetic counselors do. if i were to pick only fish strains that have a lot of known issues, then i could say that inbreeding would have an X probability of producing a bad mutation, but that would only be accurate for the populations that i named, and would not represent the whole of the species very well at all.

so there really is no number that will be accurate. we cant say that there is X probability for all people. it will be different for each couple involved. the only way to give good advice on risk is to know the pedigree of the persons involved. some couples may have little to worry about, but for others, it may be a totally different story.
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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Fri 30 Mar - 17:14
Well, of course not, Olek. If the average weight of an Army soldier is 160 pounds, I couldn’t say with confidence that your weight is 160 pounds. You’ll always have more information if you get specific.

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Fri 30 Mar - 17:38
my point is that it HAS to be specific when we talk about risk. some populations carry a lot of risk, some carry very little. the authors of that paper didn't out right say that, but their advice follows the idea.

i dont know if this link is going to work, but ill try anyway...
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.582.1567&rep=rep1&type=pdf

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Fri 30 Mar - 17:47
Whether you need to get specific or general depends on whether you want to talk about the specific or the general. In general, and absent any other information, the best numbers available are that the additional risk of birth defects for F=0.25 is around 33%. In specific... go get counseling if you can do it without getting arrested.

BTW, thanks for digging up the direct link. I could have saved myself forty bucks. Smile

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UN

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Fri 30 Mar - 18:15
the best data today is not good data. it most likely represents the worst case scenario, because that is what ascertainment bias typically does...


anyway, if you ever want to find a direct link to a paper, send me any link you have. if it exists for free, ill find it.
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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Fri 30 Mar - 20:36
Can you get the Bittles paper, Olek? That seems to be key to the F=0.25 results.

BTW, do you do this stuff for a living, in addition to the ninja job?

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UN

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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Sat 31 Mar - 3:55
which paper are you talking about? bittles wrote several...

as for "this stuff" im not sure what you mean. i like to do my own studies on questions that there isnt a good answer for in the literature. for instance, i believe i still own all of the publicly accessible micrographs of certain larval fish. my work on those fish changed the understanding of their life cycle. research is a hobby for me.
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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Sat 31 Mar - 17:32
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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Sat 31 Mar - 17:33
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Re: Woman with ailing baby charged with incest

on Sat 31 Mar - 17:36
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